What India, Australia, South Africa need to do to make the World Test Championship final
Pakistan's chances of finishing in the top two of the points table have taken a massive hit
The two home defeats have badly dented Pakistan's hopes of qualifying for the final. With only three Tests left in this cycle (one against England in Karachi and two home games against New Zealand), the maximum that they can finish on is 54.76%. It is very likely that at least two teams will finish with higher percentages.
India are currently fourth on the points table, but if they win each of their remaining six Tests - two against Bangladesh and four against Australia - then their percentage will rise to 68.06, which will surely be enough for a top-two finish (Australia's numbers will drop if they lose four to India).
Australia are comfortably on top of the table at 75%, but they still have some work to do before they are certain of qualifying: if they lose each of their remaining seven matches in this cycle, their percentage will drop to 47.37.
South Africa are currently second on the points table, with two series to play - three Tests in Australia, and two at home against West Indies next year. If they win their home Tests but lose all of their away Tests, they will drop to 53.33. Hence, they need at least one win in Australia: a 1-2 series defeat followed by a 2-0 series win will lift them to 60%, which will keep them in contention.
Sri Lanka are currently on 53.33%, with just two away Tests in New Zealand to go in this cycle. If they win both, their score will rise to 61.11; if the series finishes 1-1, it will drop marginally to 52.78. Thus they will probably need two wins to stay in contention.
Despite England's fantastic run under Ben Stokes, with eight wins in their last nine Tests, England are not in the race. They only have one Test remaining in the current cycle, and even if they win that, they will end up on 46.97%. That's because they had a wretched first half of a campaign: in their first 12 Tests of this cycle, they lost seven, drew four, and won only one.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats